Judgment under uncertainty
Start with the limits of evidence, then move into bias and decision quality.
The ideas that inform how I think about strategy, systems, technology, and craft. Each profile explains the argument, use, limits, and connections; the paths turn separate titles into a sequence.
Start with the limits of evidence, then move into bias and decision quality.
Understand commitments and coordination before applying negotiation tactics.
Test the problem, run the learning loop, and build an operating system for delivery.
Trace the argument from individual agency to monetary and network ownership.
Move from alignment problems to institutional risk and practical collaboration.
Question the stable self, then test how responsibility and planning change across a life.
Check the customer problem, test a repeatable B2B sales process, then shape team practices around the work. Built to Grow is currently listed for preorder.
Understand who carries open projects, give members ways to take part, and plan for the ongoing work of keeping a system useful.
Think about how to choose important questions, trace the research behind computing, then hear how AI researchers and builders described a recent period.
Examine how capital supports ambitious projects, how production improves, and what it takes to maintain the systems built.
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Philosophy 1997 Foundational
A 1997 forecast arguing that the information age dissolves the nation-state's monopoly on violence and money, individuals with portable wealth and information leverage become effectively sovereign.
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Web3 2018 Foundational
A monetary history from Yap stones through the gold standard to fiat, arguing that Bitcoin completes the hard-money lineage, and that time preference, not technology, is the variable that decides civilizations.
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Web3 2016 Transcribed talks making the case that Bitcoin is an internet-native money protocol, the conceptual 'why' that should come before any discussion of prices, trading, or code.
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Strategy 2014 Foundational
Thiel's case that real progress comes from creating something new, going 0 to 1, rather than copying what works, built from his Stanford course notes.
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Strategy 2004 Graham's essays arguing that making software is a creative craft, closer to painting than engineering, and that taste, obscurity, and iteration drive both.
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Web3 2018 The canonical developer's guide to Ethereum: accounts, transactions, smart contracts, Solidity, token standards, and dapp architecture, from first principles to production thinking.
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Philosophy 2022 A founder's manual for a new form of polity: start with an online community united by a moral innovation, build cloud-first institutions, and crowdfund physical territory over decades.
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Philosophy 2020 Foundational
A curated anthology of Naval's thinking: wealth comes from leverage, code, media, capital, labor, plus judgment and long-term games; happiness is a default state you maintain, not a reward you earn.
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Web3 2024 Foundational
Why open protocols won the early internet, how corporate platforms captured it, and why blockchain networks offer a third model, network-owned computing with credible-neutral rules.
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Strategy 2006 A business book on decentralized organizations: cut a spider's head and it dies, cut a starfish's arm and it regrows, the anatomy of networks that survive attack.
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Strategy 1998 Greene's amoral field guide to power, distilled from three thousand years of history: each law illustrated with obeyed, transgressed, and reversed readings.
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Philosophy 2007 A fantasy epic told by its own legend: an innkeeper recounts his rise from troup-actor orphan to the university's most talented and reckless student, a story about curiosity, poverty, pride, and the price of stories.
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Philosophy 2011 The authorized biography, warts intact: how Jobs built Apple twice through ruthless focus, design conviction, and behavior that was often indefensible, and how the second act is the instructive one.
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Philosophy 2007 The biography of a mind that outran institutions: how a patent clerk rewrote physics through thought experiments, aesthetic conviction, and polite irreverence, plus the humility of his late-career resistance to quantum mechanics.
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Philosophy 2005 Recommended
A compact collection of Einstein's reflections on society, ethics, peace, freedom, and relativity, written for readers rather than specialists.
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Strategy 2008 Foundational
Meadows' primer on systems: stocks, flows, feedback, delays, and why intervening at the wrong leverage point makes problems worse.
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Strategy 2018 Poker champion Annie Duke on deciding under uncertainty: separate decision quality from outcome quality, and treat beliefs as bets to be updated.
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Philosophy 1999 The popularization of the quest for physics' unified framework, relativity, quantum mechanics, and string theory's extra dimensions, explained through analogy for non-physicists.
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Philosophy 1985 Anecdotes from a Nobel physicist's life, safecracking, samba drums, painting, quantum electrodynamics, unified by one stance: never pretend to understand what you don't.
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Strategy 2011 Kahneman's career synthesis on the two engines of thought, fast intuition and slow reason, and the systematic biases that emerge when the fast one drives.
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Philosophy 2012 Foundational
Beyond robust (surviving shocks) lies antifragile (gaining from them): a philosophy of optionality, small bets, and via negativa that treats volatility as nutrition rather than threat.
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Strategy 2020 Nineteen short stories showing that doing well with money is a behavioral skill, not an intellectual one, ego, fear, and context beat spreadsheets every time.
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AI 2024 The best plain-language guide to working with generative AI: four rules for use (always invite it, be the human in the loop, treat it as a person, assume this is the worst you'll see) and role-by-role playbooks for AI as coworker, tutor, coach, and teammate.
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AI 2023 An insider's map of the AI decade: why AI and biotech form a historically unprecedented wave, why containment is essential yet unprecedentedly hard, and what states, labs, and citizens must actually do.
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Strategy 2014 A short manifesto for showing your process instead of promoting your product: share something small every day, tell good stories, and let generosity do the marketing.
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Web3 2021 A short history of money as layers, gold coins to central-bank liabilities to deposits and dollars, closing with Bitcoin as a candidate new base layer and stablecoins as its upper layers.
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Philosophy 2023 Seventy-eight short meditations on creativity as a way of being, attention, presence, and noticing, from music's most storied producer, aimed at artists of every medium including the self-described non-artists.
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Strategy 2016 Foundational
A two-part argument: focused work is increasingly rare and increasingly valuable, then a rulebook for training attention, structuring time, and quitting shallow busyness.
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Philosophy 180 Foundational
The private notebooks of Rome's most powerful man, written to himself: stoic practices for staying clear, calm, and useful amid chaos, power, plague, and betrayal included.
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Strategy 2014 War stories and rules for the problems with no formula, layoffs, demotions, firing executives, and surviving the years where everything feels like it's failing.
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Strategy 2022 A three-act study of network effects, how to solve the atomic-network cold start, how they compound at scale, and how they saturate, reverse, and collapse.
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Strategy 2017 A seven-part framework that repositions your brand as the guide and your customer as the hero, story structure applied directly to websites, copy, and messaging.
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AI 2024 The inside story of the AI race through its two protagonists, Demis Hassabis at DeepMind/Google and Sam Altman at OpenAI, told as boardroom narrative: missions, money, and the moment compute became geopolitics.
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Strategy 2009 Foundational
The Golden Circle argument: inspiring leaders and organizations communicate from why they exist, not what they sell, purpose moves people, features don't.
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Philosophy 1973 A 1973 argument that tools, machines, institutions, systems, cross a threshold where they stop serving people and start managing them, and that convivial, human-scale tools are both possible and necessary.
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Strategy 2021 Recommended
The classic psychology of persuasion: why people say yes, organized into seven principles with experiments behind each one.
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Strategy 2013 A Wharton researcher's breakdown of the six factors that make products and ideas catch on, with a case study for each.
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Strategy 2007 A practical framework for making ideas memorable, built on decades of communication research and vivid case studies.
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Strategy 2011 The canonical methodology for turning uncertainty into experiments: MVPs, validated learning, and the pivot-or-persevere decision.
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Strategy 1983 The Intel CEO's engineering approach to management: leverage, process, meetings, and performance treated as measurable systems.
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Strategy 2013 Recommended
A short, tactical guide to asking customers questions about their lives instead of pitching your idea, so the answers stay honest.
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Strategy 1995 Gerber's case for building a business of systems rather than a job of one: the technician-manager-entrepreneur frame and franchise-prototype thinking.
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Strategy 2016 Recommended
The FBI's former lead international hostage negotiator turns hostage-line tactics into everyday negotiation tools.
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Philosophy 1976 The standard manual of nonfiction craft: strip clutter, find your voice, and rewrite until the prose sounds effortless.
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Philosophy 2019 A deep structural history of how Google-era tech turned human behavior into prediction products, and what that means for society.
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Philosophy 2020 A short, persuasive case for treating personal data as power, with concrete steps for individuals, companies, and regulators.
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Web3 2001 Steven Levy's narrative history of the people who built public-key cryptography and fought to keep it legal.
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AI 2020 A rigorous, readable tour of AI-safety research, reward learning, transparency, and the challenge of teaching machines human values.
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Philosophy 1748 Foundational
Hume's clearest account of why experience guides belief without giving us logical certainty about causes or the future.
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Strategy 1960 Foundational
Schelling's foundational account of how commitments, expectations, focal points, and controlled risk determine outcomes in mixed-motive conflict.
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Philosophy 1984 Recommended
Parfit's landmark argument that our ordinary views of self-interest, personal identity, and duties to future generations cannot all survive careful scrutiny.
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Strategy 2020 Recommended
A study of the people, incentives, and maintenance work behind open source software and online communities.
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Strategy 2019 Recommended
A hands-on guide to creating communities through shared purpose, member participation, and recurring ways to take part.
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Strategy 2026 Recommended
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A forthcoming B2B sales handbook covering the path from testing a repeatable sales motion to hiring and leading a sales team.
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Strategy 2023 Recommended
A practical management reference with frameworks, worksheets, and examples for hiring, feedback, team roles, and company operations.
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Strategy 2024 Recommended
A historical and economic case that bubbles can fund large research and technology projects, with examples from Apollo to computing.
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Strategy 2025 Recommended
A detailed account of production processes and the historical improvements that made goods and services faster, cheaper, or more reliable.
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AI 2025 Recommended
An interview-based account of AI development from 2019 to 2025, with technical context, definitions, and different perspectives.
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Strategy 2018 Recommended
A history of Licklider’s vision and the research community behind interactive computing, personal computers, and the internet.
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Strategy 2020 Recommended
A scientist’s reflections on learning, research, creative work, and how to choose problems worth sustained attention.
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Strategy 2026 Recommended
A history of maintenance across objects, infrastructure, and institutions, centered on the work that keeps systems functioning.
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Strategy 2012 Recommended
Eight business cases about executives who made capital allocation a core part of company leadership.
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Strategy 2023 Recommended
Charlie Munger’s speeches and reflections on investing, mental models, incentives, and sound judgment.
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Strategy 2022 Recommended
A history of PayPal’s early team and the product, company, and network that grew around it.
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